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Spain GDP growth: the European commission expectations for 2019 & 2020

21 May
Spanish GDP growth compared to the Euro area.
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Automatic translation from Google translate:


Spain GDP growth confirmed above EU for 2019 and 2020 by the European Commission

The European commission has just released it’s last report with economic expectations for all the European countries. Here are the main details for Spain:


Before investing anywhere, it’s always good to check the Economy and the macroeconomic data of the country. There is a good news: the economic expectations of Spain are revised upwards.

Here is the summary of the analysis of the European Commission:

The expected mild deceleration of real GDP growth materialized in the first three quarters of 2018. In the last quarter, real GDP growth regained some momentum and expanded by a robust 0.7%, partly due to a rebound in net exports. As a result, real GDP in 2018 grew by 2.5%.

In fact, the Spanish GDP growth expectations remain  above EU average: 2.1% in 2019 & 1.9% in 2020


The European commission sees the Spanish growth decelerating further to 2.1% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020  as the cycle matures. The deceleration is mainly driven by a slowdown in private consumption, which is expected to grow more slowly than disposable income, as pent-up demand is absorbed and households increase their saving rate.



Compare the GDP growth expectations for Spain vs other EU countries with our interactive charts:

You will see right away that Spain is in the winning group in Europe.

2019 GDP Growth expectations – interactive chart

Source: European Commission


  • Growth is expected to continue easing over the forecast horizon, to  2.1% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020 but remains higher than EU averages.
  • Private consumption is projected to remain the main driver of growth, but to slow down as the pace of job creation moderates.
  • Residential construction and equipment investment are set to ease gradually.


Net exports contributing negatively (vs positively before) to growth

  • The contribution of the external sector to growth is projected to remain negative but improve in 2019, and turn
    neutral in 2020.

Despite weak growth in global trade, exports are forecast to accelerate slightly in 2019 and
2020, as Spain’s export market shares gradually improve after a sharp deterioration in 2018. At the same time,
imports are expected to decelerate broadly in line with final demand.


The unemployment rate to fall to about 14% by 2019

  • The unemployment rate to fall to about 14% by 2019, a reduction from 21% at its peak in 2013.
  • Wage growth is expected to accelerate in 2019, partly under the impact of the increase in the minimum wage, and to moderate but still be above inflation in 2020.