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What return will you make on your Spanish Property in 2021? +5.6%

30 Jan
2021
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Follow this link if you are looking for the last update on the real estate prices for the top 20 Spanish cities.

 

Spanish property market 2021 return should stay positive: +5.6%

 

According to statistics released by the Central Bank of Spain in November 2020, the return expected on the residential Real Estate market in Spain is 5,6% – Blue line on the chart.

This performance comes from two sources:

  • gross rental yield estimated at 3,71% Green line on the chart and
  • capital gain estimated at 1.9%.

Here is what we will cover in this article:

 

    1. The Spanish real estate market post Covid 

      As we wrote last year: three main trends remain active:

      • people are buying bigger, with more outside spaces and lights
      • people are buying outside big cities
      • foreigners are less active due to travel restrictions (but at HTBIS we could see a strong pick up in activity since end 2020)

      Don’t miss our detailed update of last year: What are the impacts of Coronavirus on the Spanish Real Estate Market?

      Coronavirus Spanish real estate

       

 

  1. Spanish real estate return was above 10% in May 2019

     

    Of course, the uncertainty on the economy that comes from Covid can be seen on real estate prices

     

    Have a look at our interactive chart (yes when you come back, it will be updated)

     

     

  2. Mortgage rates in Spain are at the lowest levels ever at 1.8%

     

    1.8% in November 2020, Red line on the chart

     

     

    You can always find that information updated on our “Returns & Mortgage Section” and read our article updated every month with the current mortgage conditions: Find the best mortgage rate in Spain

    Maybe interest rates won’t stay that low for a long period of time… they rose to 3% during the summer of 2018 but back to 2% one year later.

    Have a quick look at our Spanish mortgage calculator if you want to know what is your purchasing power to buy a property in Spain:

     

    The first real positive return since the crisis of 2008 came in early 2014 … six years ago…

    As you can see on our chart, the estimated return became slightly positive for the second time since 2008 at the start of 2014. In 2010, the estimated return went slightly positive but it was not enough to compensate the mortgages costs. The performance was much stronger in 2018 as the estimated profitability was higher than 10%. Right now, with close to 6%, the estimated profitability covers by more than 3 times the current mortgages costs.

    Follow this link if you want to learn more about our partner, one of the leading Mortgage brokers in Spain.

     

  3. Real estate prices are lower than 10 years ago

     

    Is there a lot of downside from here? Check the chart of real estate price evolution before and after 2007:

     

     

  4. Spanish real estate returns have the second weakest performance in Europe on a 10-year time frame (data 2018)

    Have a look at the comparison of the real estate market in Spain vs other European countries on any time frame between 3 months and 10 -year time frame

     

     

    As you saw on this histogram, Spain has the weakest performance on a 10-year time frame. Click on the chart to check the performance for other period lengths.

     

  5. Spanish Real Estate has the highest yields vs many European Cities

    Discover the best new build projects in Spain available right now

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    Invest in property in Spain? Spain is in the sweet spot for property investment!

    Buy to let? Spain offers some of the best returns in Europe:

    • Madrid has the highest rental yield in Europe and 
    • Barcelona is the fourth cities in Europe with the highest yield according to Deloitte.

    Check the best rental Yields for the major European Cities, Madrid and Barcelona have rental yields close to 4.5%.

     

     

    Barcelona and Madrid are the 5th and 8th most expensive European cities in terms of price/m²…

     

     

  6. Real estate activity was strong in 2019 but was weak in 2020 due to Covid

    Close to 100.000 properties were bought by foreigners in Spain in 2019 and more than 475.000 by Spaniards.

     

    It looks like others agree with our conclusions…

    Check for more information our up to date pages on the Spanish national real estate market (prices and activity) and on the Spanish regional real estate markets (prices and activity).

    If you want to have a deeper analysis, city per city, we would suggest reading our full report on that (click on the picture):

     

    Here is as well our report on the Most active cities in Spain in 2019 (in terms of transaction).

     

  7. Big uncertainty for the Spanish economic activity

    Of course, we noticed a strong rebound to early 2020,…

    Check our up to date tables of a few Economic indicators in Spain:

    • Unemployment went from 26% to 14%, and should decrease further to 13.4% en 2020
    • Car sales are recovering, +60% vs 5 years ago
    • GDP is one of the strongest in Europe with expectations for a growth of 2019 above 2%

    We wrote this article on the Spanish GDP expectations:  Spanish GDP growth to remain strong up to 2021

    But after this strong rebound, as everywhere in the world, we wait for the uncertainty to settle and the vaccines to allow more “normal” economic activity.

     

  8. Financial markets are back to the positive side

    After the negative returns noticed in the financial markets in 2018 and the high volatility, 2020 saw a huge spike in volatility but at the same time Central bank poured money to support economies. A big unknown is what are the economic impacts that will be seen in the next years due to Corona.

     

  9. Other experts’ expectations for 2021

    “In October 2020, the models forecast that, in one year’s time, house prices will have fallen in 7 out of 10 provinces. However, the models still project price increases in almost one third of Spain’s provinces, albeit a much more moderate rise than predicted a year ago, particularly in Malaga (+2.0%) and Madrid (+0.8%).”

     

     

  10. Do you want to search further?

    First start with our exclusive property buyers guides:

     

    Have a look at our interesting articles:

     

    Source: Deloitte property Index 2019,  Overview of the European Residential Market

     

    Looking for a local property hunter, a local lawyer, … any expert in Spain? Ask us directly!

    Stéphane 

    Senior analyst and strategist at HTBIS

    Check the full HTBIS team here

 

FAQ on the subject

Is it a good time to buy property in Spain 2021?

Yes, for sure, as you can see, prices are rising since 2014 but are far from the top of 2008. Returns are healthy and not excessive while financing remain low. Read more in our paper.

Are property prices in Spain falling?

No prices are not falling anymore in Spain. Real estate prices are rising since 2014 and remain far from the top: current average price per square meter in Spain is €1638 (end September 2019).

Can I get residency in Spain if I buy a house?

It depends if you are part of EU or not and if you have enough financial means to live. If you are not from EU countries, there are solutions, have a look at our article about the golden visa.

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