Follow this link if you are looking for the last update on the real estate prices in the top 20 Spanish cities.
Spanish property market 2020 return is strong: +8.5%
According to statistics released by the Central Bank of Spain in November 2019, the return expected on the residential Real Estate market in Spain is 8,5% – Blue line on the chart.
This performance comes from two sources:
- gross rental yield estimated at 3,83% –Green line on the chart– and
- capital gain estimated at 4.67%.
The first good news: 8.5% is quite strong!
Have a look at our interactive chart (yes when you come back, it will be updated)
The second good news: mortgage rates are close to 2% and remain at the bottom of their 10-year range
2.02% in November 2019, Red line on the chart
Maybe interest rates won’t stay that low for a long period of time… they rose to 3% during the summer of 2018 but back to 2% one year later.
Have a quick look at our Spanish mortgage calculator if you want to know what is your purchasing power to buy a property in Spain:
The first real positive return since the crisis of 2008 came in early 2014 … four years ago…
As you can see on our chart, the estimated return became slightly positive for the second time since 2008 at the start of 2014. In 2010, the estimated return went slightly positive but it was not enough to compensate the mortgages costs. This time, the performance is much stronger as the estimated profitability of 11.2% covers by more than 5 times the mortgages costs.
The third good news: Real estate prices remain lower than the prices of 10 years ago
Is there a lot of downside from here? Check the chart of real estate price evolution before and after 2007:
The fourth good news: Spain has the second weakest performance in Europe on a 10-year time frame
Have a look at the comparison of the real estate market in Spain vs other European countries on any time frame between 3 months and 10 -year time frame
As you saw on this histogram, Spain has the weakest performance on a 10-year time frame. Click on the chart to check the performance for other period lengths.
The fifth good news: Spanish Real Estate is cheap and has the highest yields vs many European Cities
Invest in property in Spain? Spain is in the sweet spot for property investment!
Buy to let? Spain offers some of the best returns in Europe:
- Madrid has the highest rental yield in Europe and
- Barcelona is the fourth cities in Europe with the highest yield according to Deloitte.
Check the best rental Yields for the major European Cities, Madrid and Barcelona have rental yields close to 4.5%.
Barcelona and Madrid are the 5th and 8th most expensive European cities in terms of price/m²…
But check on the above chart, the price/m² in London is 11.200€/m² and 12.900€/m² in Paris… while Barcelona and Madrid are closer to 5.000€/m².
You read it correctly: less than one-quarter and one-third of the price of London and Paris. Period.
Now, you understand why the returns in Madrid and Barcelona are nearly twice as high as the one in Paris and London.
Do you think that the downside risk is higher in Barcelona and Madrid than in Paris and London?
The sixth good news: Activity is picking up
Close to 100.000 properties were bought by foreigners in Spain in 2019 and more than 475.000 by Spaniards.
It looks like others agree with our conclusions…
Check for more information our up to date pages on the Spanish national real estate market (prices and activity) and on the Spanish regional real estate markets (prices and activity).
If you want to have a deeper analysis, city per city, we would suggest reading our full report on that (click on the picture):
Here is as well our report on the Most active cities in Spain in 2019 (in terms of transaction).
Spanish economic activity remains strong
Check our up to date tables of a few Economic indicators in Spain:
- Unemployment went from 26% to 14%, and should decrease further to 13.4% en 2020
- Car sales are recovering, +60% vs 5 years ago
- GDP is one of the strongest in Europe with expectations for a growth of 2019 above 2%
We wrote this article on the Spanish GDP expectations: Spanish GDP growth to remain strong up to 2021
Financial markets suffer from negative performance and volatility
With the negative returns noticed in the financial markets in 2018 and the higher volatility, as long as the economy is growing, investors should keep a strong interest in real estate investments.
Other experts’ expectations for 2020
- In an article published by the Spanish journal, EXPANSIÓN, Moody’s expects a 5.5% rise for the real estate prices in Spain in 2020, which is the best performance in Europe, in front of Ireland and Holland for instance (4.5% increase expected). They define the market as stable thanks to two positive factors: the consumer confidence is rising and the unemployment rate is decreasing. Unemployment rate should come close to 13.4% end 2020. Last but not least, the market should benefit from the low financing rates.
- Some experts expect returns between 2 and 5% as they wrote in “El pais” on the 5th of January. We see the strongest price growth expectations in Barcelona & Madrid.
Here were the expectations from experts last year
In an article published by the Spanish journal, EXPANSIÓN, on the 8th of January 2019, experts predict for 2019 price increases of 5% and 13% more transactions. At the same time, they see rental prices to continue to increase by 10%. While Barcelona and Madrid had strong prices increases since 2014, they think that the price action could be more for second-tier cities like Valencia, Malaga, Palma or Seville. Other cities like Alicante, Tarragona, Bilbao, Murcia or Zaragoza could see interest according to them. Read the article in Spanish.
To be honest, we noticed this trend for Valencia starting already end 2017. That’s why we organised there our first Real estate city trip with our local property finder. Check our article on that if you want: Real estate market Valencia Citytrip feedback – April 2018 We noticed as well a lot of interest for Tenerife on our website.
Do you want to search further?
First start with our exclusive property buyers guides:
Have a look at our interesting articles:
- Top 10 reasons why we think that the Spanish market is a nice real estate opportunity right now, we bought ourselves in 2014, let’s put our money where our words are 😉 .
- Spanish Real estate market vs the other European markets – Our quarterly update
- Madrid investment case study
- Barcelona investment case study
- Tenerife property investment case study
- Six reasons to love your property shopper
Our quick FAQ on the subject
Is it a good time to buy property in Spain 2020?
Yes, for sure, as you can see, prices are rising since 2014 but are far from the top of 2008. Returns are healthy and not excessive while financing remain low. Read more in our paper.
Are property prices in Spain falling?
No prices are not falling anymore in Spain. Real estate prices are rising since 2014 and remain far from the top: current average price per square meter in Spain is €1638 (end September 2019).
Can I get residency in Spain if I buy a house?
It depends if you are part of EU or not and if you have enough financial means to live. If you are not from EU countries, there are solutions, have a look at our article about the golden visa.